Covid 19 Resources Center

On COVID-19 in China, Airfinity reports forecasting under two scenarios, one of them incorporating media/anecdotal reports of provinces where case rates may have already peaked, in which cases deaths may soon peak.  Sequencing of cases within China and in overseas travellers from China continue to point to variants which are widespread and not of high immune evasiveness.  The WHO Emergency Committee on COVID-19 meets again later this week, on 27 January. 

The possibility of a large-scale COVID-19 rebound in China over the next few months is remote as 80% of the country’s population has been infected, Al Jazeera quoted Wu Zunyou (chief epidemiologist at the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention) as saying last Saturday.  In keeping with this, a Hong Kong University study estimated that 90% of the 22 million population of Beijing will have been infected by the end of January. 

For your reference, from UNWTO and IATA, here is an on-line tool to track travel restrictions including those relating to travellers from China:   https://www.unwto.org/tourism-data/unwto-iata-destination-tracker-easy-travel

COVID-19 continues to spread in China, Airfinity reported, with forecasts showing ~3.6 million new cases per day. Cases are high but appear to be stabilising in Canada and the USA, with deaths still rising, while the case rebound continues in Japan and Australia.   Meanwhile an article in Nature quotes modelling from the UK, suggesting that Chinese outbreak peaked in December, and this is matched by recent claims from Chinese health officials – although not all modellers agree.  https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00075-4

According to Airfinity, COVID-19 cases in Japan are expected to increase further following a brief decline at the start of the month and are also increasing in Australia, Canada and Mexico while showing signs of stabilising in the USA despite XBB.1.5 spread.

The situation with COVID-19 in China is of course big news.  Modelling by Airfinity predicts total cases in China could reach as high as around 4 million a day with two peaks emerging over the next 4–5 months. Under a hospitalisation rate of 3%, new hospitalisations could exceed 120,000  daily, with cumulative hospitalisations possibly surpassing 6 million by late April.

Further, peak ICU occupancies are projected to be over 300,000 with some regions oversubscribed for a month, and oxygen requirements challenging.  Airfinity estimates 3 million cases and 18,900 deaths per day currently, with 33 million cases and almost 200,000 deaths cumulatively so far; there are some news reports citing leaked official case numbers still much higher than this for December 2022. 

BBC quotes an official press conference in China’s third largest province Henan, as saying that around 90% of the population have been infected in the current period. 

COVID-19:

In China, the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions has continued, including opening up of travel with lifting (from 8 January) of quarantine requirements for arrivals – although there will still be a requirement for pre-travel COVID testing.  Under the “category B” management of COVID-19, case data will only be published once a month, according to the China CDC on Tuesday.  Anecdotal reports of very high numbers of cases, hospitalisations, and deaths are quite consistent with recent forecasts. 

Phylogenetic analysis of the latest SARS-CoV-2 sequences from several Chinese regions reveals that the variants currently circulating in the country are the same as those seen circulating globally in the second half of 2022, particularly the Omicron sub-lineages BF.7 and BA.5.2. There is no evidence of a new variant. Nevertheless, several countries (including India, Japan, Italy, Malaysia, and now the USA) as well as Taiwan are implementing COVID-19 testing for travellers arriving from China. 

COVID-19:

The situation in China appears challenging with rising infection numbers after the abrupt relaxation of many restrictions - including releasing cities from lockdowns, people being able to quarantine at home on some occasions and not being required to present negative tests at public venues.  Current official case and death numbers are implausibly low.  It is not clear how severe the impact of the current wave will be, because China’s immune landscape in China is so different to anywhere else, but deaths are expected to increase in coming weeks as case numbers surge.  It is noted that while this carries risk of new variants, the different immune landscape in China reduces the likelihood of a new variant that is able to outcompete Omicron.  The Chinese situation is discussed in Nature here https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-04502-w

COVID-19:

General comments on COVID-19 (sources: YLE, Airfinity, Eric Topol “Ground Truths” and WHO)

Internationally, although the situation is variable, COVID-19 is in a generally increasing phase, thought to be based on: waning immunity;  behaviour (northern winter approaching with colder weather, more indoor gatherings, and abandoning mitigation measures); and variants.   

Cases reached a record high in China with restrictions being reduced in a few major cities now – Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen.  The current direction of the outbreak in China is somewhat unclear.  

Brazil’s wave continues (note the return of some mask mandates including aviation).

France’s uptick in cases can be linked to BQ.1.1 and low booster coverage, and earlier optimism about a drop in BQ.1 variants may have been falsely concluded because there was under-diagnosis due to a strike by staff of laboratories.