On COVID-19 in China, Airfinity reports forecasting under two scenarios, one of them incorporating media/anecdotal reports of provinces where case rates may have already peaked, in which cases deaths may soon peak. Sequencing of cases within China and in overseas travellers from China continue to point to variants which are widespread and not of high immune evasiveness. The WHO Emergency Committee on COVID-19 meets again later this week, on 27 January.
The possibility of a large-scale COVID-19 rebound in China over the next few months is remote as 80% of the country’s population has been infected, Al Jazeera quoted Wu Zunyou (chief epidemiologist at the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention) as saying last Saturday. In keeping with this, a Hong Kong University study estimated that 90% of the 22 million population of Beijing will have been infected by the end of January.
For your reference, from UNWTO and IATA, here is an on-line tool to track travel restrictions including those relating to travellers from China: https://www.unwto.org/tourism-data/unwto-iata-destination-tracker-easy-travel
Notable comment from WHO on their meeting with China regarding the outbreak is here - https://www.who.int/news/item/14-01-2023-who-welcomes-data-on-covid-19-in-china--meeting-with-minister
An article from Nature on immune imprinting and its significance for COVID vaccination/exposure: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00086-1
A detailed report from the US Academies of Science on wastewater-based disease surveillance has been published – it has only a very brief reference to wastewater testing at airports, as a sentinel site, with no specific discussion of aircraft wastewater testing: https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/26767/wastewater-based-disease-surveillance-for-public-health-action “Sites that can directly inform community wastewater-based surveillance, especially as related to emerging pathogens, will provide important and distinct benefits in the context of a national surveillance network. Such sentinel sites could include wastewater surveillance at major international airports with a large number of global travellers to detect emerging pathogens and antimicrobial resistance genes.”
An article on safe burial practices and how they helped in arresting the Uganda Ebola outbreak is here: https://www.bmj.com/content/380/bmj.p92.short
In Nigeria an outbreak of the respiratory bacterial disease diphtheria is reported, with over 120 cases and almost 40 deaths.
In Bangladesh there was a second death from the Nipah virus - which causes encephalitis, and is contracted from bats either by contact or by ingestion of contaminated food/water.
From Airfinity, continuation of recent trends with various other infectious diseases:
Japan’s COVID-19 wave produced its highest yet death rates, possibly peaking about now, as cases are declining.
In the USA the XBB.1.5 subvariant is now responsible for 50% of COVID cases.
Cholera and measles outbreaks continue to burden low- and middle-income countries. High-risk cholera outbreaks are ongoing in Syria (77000 cases, many in refugee camps) Lebanon (6000), and Haiti (24000). There is also cholera in Malawi now (as well as a 5th case of polio which has reappeared there). An ongoing measles outbreak in South Africa has been reported previously.
The UK reports unusually high Group A Streptococcus activity for this time of the year, with increased case rates also in France, Australia and USA. However, the bacterial infection is prevalent, easily curable with antibiotics, and deaths remain extremely rare. Australia also has elevated rates of Japanese encephalitis and Murray Valley encephalitis this season. The UK and US have had earlier than usual waves of cases and deaths from influenza and as widely reported, UK hospitals are struggling to manage acute case loads.
High-risk dengue outbreaks are ongoing across Asia, including Nepal. Bolivia is also on alert for dengue.
In the USA a highly drug-resistant “superfungus” Candida auris was identified in wastewater. Various outbreaks include salmonella (food-related) in Sweden and multi-drug resistant gonorrhoea in USA. WHO has warned of the impact of “priority pathogens” which represent an increasing fungal threat to human health.
Monkeypox rates continue to decline in many countries with total global deaths only around 80 during this outbreak of some 85000 cases. The WHO Emergency Committee for monkeypox will meet in February.
David Powell
IATA Medical Advisor