COVID-19:
General comments on COVID-19 (sources: YLE, Airfinity, Eric Topol “Ground Truths” and WHO)
Internationally, although the situation is variable, COVID-19 is in a generally increasing phase, thought to be based on: waning immunity; behaviour (northern winter approaching with colder weather, more indoor gatherings, and abandoning mitigation measures); and variants.
Cases reached a record high in China with restrictions being reduced in a few major cities now – Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. The current direction of the outbreak in China is somewhat unclear.
Brazil’s wave continues (note the return of some mask mandates including aviation).
France’s uptick in cases can be linked to BQ.1.1 and low booster coverage, and earlier optimism about a drop in BQ.1 variants may have been falsely concluded because there was under-diagnosis due to a strike by staff of laboratories.
Mexico is likely entering a winter wave.
In North America there are higher numbers of RSV cases than for many years, as well as a surge in influenza which has seen “flu” hospitalisations recently equal those for COVID-19 in Canada.
On variants, in the US new genomic data showed that BQ.1/BQ.1.1 have risen to 63% of new cases. The BA.5 wave has faded away (14%) while the worrisome XBB variant is gaining at low levels (now 5.5%) and so is BN.1 (4.6%). The rest of the variant soup is in descent or not gaining traction.
A second Chinese intranasal vaccine has been approved, joining the previous Chinese one and those in Iran, Russia and India. No Western country has yet approved an intranasal vaccine.
A paper on T cell Immunity is here, Tye et al: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-022-01351-7 WHO estimates at least 90% of the world’s population has some level of COVID-19 immunity due to vaccination or previous infection.
But on the more concerning side, a new article with more evidence on the long-term ageing-like changes in the brain following COVID-19 infection is here, Mavrikaki et al: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43587-022-00321-w.pdf
Other outbreaks:
Mpox (the new term for monkeypox) cases are declining in several countries, lowering risk concern. Deaths across non-endemic countries total in the 50’s.
The slowing of the Ebola outbreak in Uganda has continued, to the extent that there may be insufficient cases to proceed with the vaccine trials.
High-risk cholera outbreaks are ongoing in Syria and Lebanon as well as in Haiti (over 10,000 hospitalisations).
Dengue fever numbers are still high in Asia and Sudan.
Measles outbreaks are occurring in many locations worldwide.
In UK a 9th death from Group A Streptococcus infection is reported.
A webinar on Emerging biological threats from WHO’s EPI-WIN service will screen at 1400-1500 (Central European Time) on 15 December and can be viewed live or post-event on the EPI-WIN YouTube channel.
Finally, this article on anaphylaxis on aircraft is interesting, as well as reassuring – Kodoth et al: https://www.annallergy.org/article/S1081-1206(22)00662-7/fulltext
Best wishes,
David Powell
IATA Medical Advisor